Question: What can conservatives expect from a Barack Obama/Joe Biden administration?
By now, most people know that Barack Obama is planning to give tax relief to "middle class" workers by taxing upper middle class workers making more than $140,000 a year. Beyond fixing the economy, what else does Obama have in mind for the country, and how realistic are his expectations? Are his plans really any different from those of Congressional Democrats?
Answer:
Perhaps the most disturbing thing about the incoming Obama/Biden administration is the abrupt removal of detailed policy information from Barack Obama's transition web site, Change.gov. The issues upon which he campaigned are still on his campaign web site, BarackObama.combut the removal of the very detailed plans that were up on the transition site seems to indicate polices that are suddenly in flux. Further clouding the picture is the "complicated tangle of ties to private influence seekers" (according to a New York Times analysis) who are embedded in the transition team, despite Obama's call to prohibit special interest lobbyists from contributing money to the transition process.
With the elimination of Obama's agenda from his transition web site, uncovering what's to come in the Obama administration becomes a little more difficult to gauge, and we're left to rely on the material still up from his campaign site, and a hazy recollection of its differences from the transition site.
Economy
Under the Obama/Biden administration, families making more than $250,000 a year, will be asked to "give back a portion of the tax cuts they have received over the past eight years to ensure we are restoring fairness and returning to fiscal responsibility."
It's fairly certain, however, that any tax relief or tax levies would not come before 2010. That's when the Bush tax cuts are set to expire, and it's easier to let them expire than it is to repeal them.
The question then becomes how will Obama pay for the reforms he's planning? Government is the largest it has ever been and is already struggling to find ways to pay for its many programs.
Higher rates on the rich only reduce the revenue collected from them, because it increases the export of capital to offshore accounts. The top marginal rate is now 35 percent. Meanwhile, the top 10 percent of American families pay 70 percent of all income tax revenue while earning only 39 percent of the US income before taxes. The top 1 percent, by itself, pays 40 percent, while the bottom 40 percent pays no income tax at all.
The fear for conservatives is that Obama's "trickle UP economics" won't provide enough revenue to balance the bloated US budget, which will actually make it "evaporative economics." That means that if he cuts taxes as he promised, he'll have to cut services and programs as well, unless he can find a way to make up the shortfall.
Iraq & Afghanistan
One area where Obama claims he can pull revenue is from the withdrawal of US troops from Iraq, and the billions of dollars being spent on its defense every month. The trouble with this theory, however, is that Obama isn't really bringing home the troops. Instead, his plan is to redeploy them to Afghanistan to fulfill another campaign promise: hunting down and "killing" Osama bin Laden.
Although most conservatives disagreed with the invasion and occupation of Iraq, the fact is that American soldiers are very near success. The problem that remains in Iraq is that the Iraqi forces are still struggling to fight the insurgency. If the job is not finished properly, the war effort will have been in vain, and by leaving Iraq without a legitimate handover, the door will be open for al Queda to move its base of operations from Afghanistan to Iraq. These are very real concerns.
Foreign Policy
Undoubtedly, what these concerns will add up to for allies of the US is a call from the Obama administration to put more of their troops in harm's way. This could elevate tensions between the US and its European allies, especially when it was Obama's candidacy that most European countries supported.
Although many people, even some conservatives, believe Obama's presidency will give the US a greater standing in the international community and remove its stigma of arrogance, there is also a concern that it will give US enemies like Iran and North Korea the perception that America's resolve is weakened. There is also the possibility that terrorists like Osama bin Laden will use any top-level discussions as fodder for a renewed call to action.
Most beltway insiders believe that Biden's role in the administration's foreign policy (one of the precepts upon which Obama allegedly selected Biden as his running-mate) will be part adviser, part ambassador. There is a considerable concern among conservatives and liberals, however, that Biden's occasional verbal blunders could turn into real international problems for the US.
National Security
Although many of the items in the PATRIOT Act are in direct conflict with the Constitution, most conservatives are willing to concede that many of the protections are necessary. To his credit, Obama has worked to reduce the legislation's impact on the civil liberties of American citizens, but has been non committal as to whether he will repeal the Act outright. While has has remained resolute about working to eliminate terrorism and protect US interests against terrorist attacks, some fear national security is not one of Obama's priorities, as this quote from November 2007, would seem to indicate:
"The threat that we face now is nowhere near as dire as it was in the Cold War. We shouldn't allow our politics to be driven by the fear of terrorism."
In coming weeks, more information will be included on the issues of education, immigration, health care and social causes.
FAQ Index to 2008 Election Fallout FAQ Index
Perhaps the most disturbing thing about the incoming Obama/Biden administration is the abrupt removal of detailed policy information from Barack Obama's transition web site, Change.gov. The issues upon which he campaigned are still on his campaign web site, BarackObama.combut the removal of the very detailed plans that were up on the transition site seems to indicate polices that are suddenly in flux. Further clouding the picture is the "complicated tangle of ties to private influence seekers" (according to a New York Times analysis) who are embedded in the transition team, despite Obama's call to prohibit special interest lobbyists from contributing money to the transition process.
With the elimination of Obama's agenda from his transition web site, uncovering what's to come in the Obama administration becomes a little more difficult to gauge, and we're left to rely on the material still up from his campaign site, and a hazy recollection of its differences from the transition site.
Economy
Under the Obama/Biden administration, families making more than $250,000 a year, will be asked to "give back a portion of the tax cuts they have received over the past eight years to ensure we are restoring fairness and returning to fiscal responsibility."
It's fairly certain, however, that any tax relief or tax levies would not come before 2010. That's when the Bush tax cuts are set to expire, and it's easier to let them expire than it is to repeal them.
The question then becomes how will Obama pay for the reforms he's planning? Government is the largest it has ever been and is already struggling to find ways to pay for its many programs.
Higher rates on the rich only reduce the revenue collected from them, because it increases the export of capital to offshore accounts. The top marginal rate is now 35 percent. Meanwhile, the top 10 percent of American families pay 70 percent of all income tax revenue while earning only 39 percent of the US income before taxes. The top 1 percent, by itself, pays 40 percent, while the bottom 40 percent pays no income tax at all.
The fear for conservatives is that Obama's "trickle UP economics" won't provide enough revenue to balance the bloated US budget, which will actually make it "evaporative economics." That means that if he cuts taxes as he promised, he'll have to cut services and programs as well, unless he can find a way to make up the shortfall.
Iraq & Afghanistan
One area where Obama claims he can pull revenue is from the withdrawal of US troops from Iraq, and the billions of dollars being spent on its defense every month. The trouble with this theory, however, is that Obama isn't really bringing home the troops. Instead, his plan is to redeploy them to Afghanistan to fulfill another campaign promise: hunting down and "killing" Osama bin Laden.
Although most conservatives disagreed with the invasion and occupation of Iraq, the fact is that American soldiers are very near success. The problem that remains in Iraq is that the Iraqi forces are still struggling to fight the insurgency. If the job is not finished properly, the war effort will have been in vain, and by leaving Iraq without a legitimate handover, the door will be open for al Queda to move its base of operations from Afghanistan to Iraq. These are very real concerns.
Foreign Policy
Undoubtedly, what these concerns will add up to for allies of the US is a call from the Obama administration to put more of their troops in harm's way. This could elevate tensions between the US and its European allies, especially when it was Obama's candidacy that most European countries supported.
Although many people, even some conservatives, believe Obama's presidency will give the US a greater standing in the international community and remove its stigma of arrogance, there is also a concern that it will give US enemies like Iran and North Korea the perception that America's resolve is weakened. There is also the possibility that terrorists like Osama bin Laden will use any top-level discussions as fodder for a renewed call to action.
Most beltway insiders believe that Biden's role in the administration's foreign policy (one of the precepts upon which Obama allegedly selected Biden as his running-mate) will be part adviser, part ambassador. There is a considerable concern among conservatives and liberals, however, that Biden's occasional verbal blunders could turn into real international problems for the US.
National Security
Although many of the items in the PATRIOT Act are in direct conflict with the Constitution, most conservatives are willing to concede that many of the protections are necessary. To his credit, Obama has worked to reduce the legislation's impact on the civil liberties of American citizens, but has been non committal as to whether he will repeal the Act outright. While has has remained resolute about working to eliminate terrorism and protect US interests against terrorist attacks, some fear national security is not one of Obama's priorities, as this quote from November 2007, would seem to indicate:
"The threat that we face now is nowhere near as dire as it was in the Cold War. We shouldn't allow our politics to be driven by the fear of terrorism."
In coming weeks, more information will be included on the issues of education, immigration, health care and social causes.
FAQ Index to 2008 Election Fallout FAQ Index
- How will conservatives fare with a Democratic Congress in 2009?
- What will the White House be like with Obama -- and *gulp* -- Joe Biden in it?
- What will the fallout be from the passage of gay marriage bans in Arizona, California and Florida?
- How do conservatives rebound from 2008?
