Wednesday January 11, 2012
The search for a conservative alternative to Mitt Romney has former Pennsylvania Sen. Rick Santorum moving ahead to South Carolina just one day after his disappointing fifth-place finish in the first-in-the-nation New Hampshire primaries.
Santorum, who finished with a close second in the Iowa Caucuses Jan. 3, trailed former House Speaker Newt Gingrich by 49 votes Tuesday.
Polls show Santorum ahead of the pack in the Palmetto State, trailing Romney in second with Gingrich behind with a close third, according to the RealClearPolitics average, released prior to the N.H. primary results.
Whereas Santorum relied on a 99-county strategy to nearly take the Iowa Caucuses, television now becomes a huge part of his strategy with the average viewer expected to see a Santorum ad up to 10 times before the primary.
The Santorum campaign announced it had raised over $3 million since Iowa, and are nearing the completion of a $1 million money bomb to fund their South Carolina activities. Donors have contributed over $896,000 since Jan. 9, as of press time.
Meanwhile, Texas Gov. Rick Perry's South Carolina fundraising appears to have stalled, with just under $250,000 in contributions to report as of press time. But, that hasn't deterred Perry, who has counted the Palmetto State as part of a strategy to win the south, from modifying their website flag to mirror the South Carolina flag.
Perry took sixth place in N.H. Tuesday, with 1 percent of the vote.
--Brandon De Hoyos, Guide to IM
Tuesday January 10, 2012
New Hampshire primary voters delivered another first-place victory to former Massachusetts Gov. Mitt Romney tonight, as Texas Congressman Ron Paul holds on to defend his territory as the conservative alternative in the GOP presidential race.
With 65 percent of the votes counted as of press time, Romney took 38 percent of the vote to Paul's 24 percent.
Jon Huntsman, former Utah Gov. and Chinese ambassador to the Obama administration, came in third with 17 percent; former Pennsylvania Sen. Rick Santorum, fresh from his Iowa second-place win, slides to fourth at 10 percent, with former House speaker Newt Gingrich trailing by a few hundred votes.
Texas Gov. Rick Perry, who did not contest N.H., polled sixth with a single percent.
Huntsman's gain on Santorum, clearly the benefit of both a strong ground campaign in the Granite State and the deflation of Gingrich's campaign, did not sidetrack the Pennsylvania conservative.
"We will go on to win South Carolina," a beaten Santorum said. "We have an opportunity to be the true conservative not just to win this race, and we can win this race, but to be the conservative who understands at the foundation of our country are institutions which are crucial for us to be a successful nation."
Family and a government which "creates a playing field" for all Americans to be successful, just two of the institutions Santorum said he'd champion as president.
All candidates vowed to continue to the South Carolina primary, set for Jan. 21.
--Brandon De Hoyos, Guide to IM
Tuesday January 10, 2012
As voters in the Granite State are casting ballots in the first-in-the-nation New Hampshire primary, the stage is being set for a battle between former Massachusetts Gov. Mitt Romney and Texas Congressman Ron Paul for the nomination.
As I've said before, Jon Huntsman won't win, but the media continues to spin yarn about a potential victory for the former Utah governor and Chinese ambassador in New Hampshire today. Even if he takes second, it does little to change the fact that Paul has positioned himself as the anti-Romney.
The RealClearPolitics average has Romney clearly in first at 37.5 percent, with Congressman Paul in the driver's seat for second at 17.5 percent.
But, the independent-streak which flows throughout the veins of Granite State voters is unpredictable, and Huntsman could very well take the day. But, then again, so can Paul, strengthened by a growing base of support much expanded and organized since the 2008 election.
If Huntsman takes New Hampshire's second place spot, the result of a good showing at the ABC News/Yahoo Republican Debate and an investment of more time than any other candidate in the state, expect it to be his fifteen minutes in the spotlight.
If Ron Paul takes New Hampshire, a real conversation should take place (but likely won't) about coalescing behind the Texan as the conservative choice in this election.
Unreported by most media outlets, Huntsman failed to make ballot in Arizona, Illinois, nor Virginia. A win tonight gives him a momentary bump in media coverage, but will result as it will for former Senator Rick Santorum: a few more dollars, but with fewer delegates, no chance of winning the nomination unless something catastrophic occurs with Romney's bid.
Speaking of Iowa's big surprise soon overshadowed, Santorum launched a New Hampshire Money Bomb Jan. 8, looking to grab $1 million as his campaign heads into South Carolina to battle with Texas Gov. Rick Perry. While pre-money bomb, Santorum quipped at a campaign stop that the campaign had raised 50 percent of its war chest within days of taking second in Iowa, he has seen less than $225,000 come in during the fundraising period, as of press time.
Paul, by comparison, is the founder and king of the money bomb, hitting $1 million in less than a day multiple times in his campaign. His latest money bomb raised $6 million in just under a week.
The congressman also enjoys the ballot access Huntsman and others do not, with he and Romney being the only candidates currently slated for the Virginia ballot, pending a court hearing on Gov. Perry's behalf.
It's abundantly clear to me this race comes down to Romney and Ron Paul. Thoughts?
--Brandon De Hoyos, Guide to IM
Saturday January 7, 2012
Just 48 hours before the first-in-the-nation New Hampshire Primary, the ABC News/Yahoo Republican Debate pit the likes of Mitt Romney, Ron Paul, Rick Santorum, Newt Gingrich, John Huntsman and Rick Perry against each other as they make their final nationally-televised appeal to voters in the Granite State.
The debate was held at the Dana Center at Saint Anselm College in Manchester, NH.
The Republican Candidates:
Who Won the Debate? Find out why I think Romney, Paul won the debate.
--Brandon De Hoyos, Guide to IM
