What to Watch For in the 2009 Midterm Elections

In the early days of the 2009 election cycle, President Barack Obama was all about Virginia, where Democrat Creigh Deeds and Republican Bob McDonnell had been in an all-out war for the office of governor. The outgoing Democratic governor couldn't run again due to a state term-limit law.

The president had made several appearances, contributed lots of money and had donated his campaign resources to the race, only to watch Deed's numbers dwindle into oblivion. In the final days leading up to the election, McDonnell had taken a double digit lead and showed no signs of looking back. In the final two weeks, Obama did what he does best -- he ignored the problems there, completely shifted gears, and left Deeds to fend for himself in a suddenly cold race that just a few weeks before had been one of the hottest in the country.

The president turned his attention toward the New Jersey gubernatorial race, where incumbent Democrat Jon Corzine was battling for his political life against Republican challenger Chris Christie. Although the race was a statistical dead heat heading into the final week before the Nov. 3 election, Obama's repeated appearances on Corzine's behalf did little to bolster the incumbent. In fact, the day before the election -- after three late appearances from the president and untold amounts of campaign contributions -- a final Quinnipiac poll revealed Christie ahead by two critical points.

While the impact the president has had on both races is open to question, Obama's concern about them in the final days of the 2009 general election campaign iss not. The president witnessed a steep decline in public approval ratings since he took office in January 2009, and regardless of the outcomes in Virginia and New Jersey, the results undoubtedly will be seen by the public as a referendum on his administration's policies. Republican victories in two key elections where the previous office-holders were both Democrats won't bode well for him as he attempts to generate his base for the all-important midterm elections in 2010.

Another race worth watching -- although it may have been over before a single ballot had been cast -- was the special election for the 23rd Congressional District in upstate New York. For conservatives, this was the race to watch. Conservative Party candidate Doug Hoffman, who had unsuccessfully sought the Republican Party endorsement in the GOP primary, was taking on 10-year Republican assemblywoman Dede Scozzafava, who was also squaring off against Democrat Bill Owens. Scozzafava's positions on gay marriage (she's for it) and abortion (she's pro-choice) were diametrically opposed to those of Hoffman. The race became a reflection of the tensions within the Republican National Committee, which pit conservative Republicans like Sarah Palin (who backed Hoffman) against mainstream Republicans like Newt Gingrich (who backed Scozzafava). Conservatives saw the race as a chance to redefine the GOP's value set, while mainstream Republicans saw the campaign as an opportunity to shore up the party's divisions and create unity once and for all.

Unfortunately for moderate Republicans, Scozzafava did the unthinkable just three days before the election -- she withdrew her candidacy and endorsed Owens, the Democrat. This was a serious blow to mainstream Republicans who had backed her campaign under the auspices of uniting the party behind her. Her departure from the race, however, can only be seen as a victory for conservatives, who will undoubtedly have one of their own in office when January 2010 rolls around.

The irony in the race for the 23rd is how an otherwise shrewd move by the president could have backfired on him so badly. Obama chose the 23rd's Congressman John McHugh to be Army Secretary, undoubtedly imagining that the seat would be filled by a Democrat or a liberal Republican. The administration would have been pleased with either Owens or Scozzafava, since both were strong supporters of his stimulus package. In Hoffman, however, the president has a genuine opponent.