Swing State Spending by Obama and McCain in 2008

There are a number of reasons that 2012 will be completely different from 2008. Conservatives have plenty of evidence against Obama, who finally has a record. The myth of Obama as a moderate was crushed by Obamacare, his anti-business rhetoric, and middle-class tax increases.

No one expects Obama to match his 2008 performance, when people were excited over the historical nature of the race. Now, disenchantment has set in for many, especially those who gave Obama a chance when they otherwise wouldn't vote for a Democrat. Democrat registrations have fallen dramatically, while Republican and Independent registrations have have steadily ticked upwards. At the same time, everyone expects the Republicans and Mitt Romney to do better than McCain did in 2008, not that it would be a difficult task. (Some states, like Indiana, are already penciled back into the Republican win column.)

But the biggest turnaround for Republicans this cycle is the one thing that will enable conservatives to capitalize on these advantages: Money. President Obama is already vilifying the "Republican money machine" and complaining about money in politics in this year's election. Simply ignore that the Obama campaign ran the most expensive campaign in US history in 2008, destroyed McCain in the ad wars, and bragged about wanting to top that and bring in $1 billion this year.

2008 Television Ad Spending Per Swing State (And Corresponding Win Percentage)

Below is a comparison of the ad spending by Barack Obama and John McCain in battleground states during the 2008 elections, courtesy of data provided by CNN, with the margin of victory.

Florida: Obama $37M, McCain $10M (O 51-48%)
North Carolina: Obama $15M, McCain $4M (O 49.6-49.4%)
Virginia: Obama $26M, McCain $8M (53-46%)
Wisconsin: Obama $12M, McCain $8M (O 56-42%)
Pennsylvania Obama $40M, McCain $22M (O 55-44%)
New Hampshire: Obama $11M, McCain $6M ( O54-45%)
Ohio: Obama $26M, McCain $14M (O 52-47%)
Michigan Obama $12M, McCain $10M (O57-41%)
Indiana: Obama $17M, McCain $500K
Iowa: Obama $13M, McCain $5M (O 50-49%)
Missouri: Obama $11M, McCain $8M (M 49-49%)
Colorado Obama $10M, McCain $8M (O 54-45%)
Nevada: Obama $9M, McCain $6M (O 55-43%)

What it Means for 2012?

What's clear is that Obama capitalized on all of the natural advantages of his first presidential run, and hammered home a victory with an enormous cash advantage. He outspent McCain 32-1 to win Indiana by less than 1%, and he probably won't come close to winning the state in his second effort. The Obama money advantage will be wiped out in 2012, and many of Obama's natural advantages from 2008 were a one-time gift. Romney displayed an impressive early vote strategy during his primary victory, an element seemingly non-existent during McCain's run. Additionally, Obama will now have to place some money into states he didn't put any into in 2008, such as Washington and Oregon, and would need to increase spending in states that had fallen out of battleground status in 2008, but have returned this year (WI, CO, NV, MI, and PA).