Important US Senate Races of 2008

Oregon (Republican Leaning):
R: Gordon Smith (I)
D: Jeff Merkley

In a state that is heavily Democratic, Republican Sen. Gordon Smith has pandered to Democrats repeatedly during the course of the 2008 campaign – going so far as to feature how he and Barack Obama worked together on energy issues during their time together in the Senate. While the national GOP euphemistically says Smith has an “independent streak,” the truth is that to maintain his seat, Smith will have to identify with liberals to hold on to his seat. From a conservative perspective, however, Smith is again the lesser of two evils. Smith’s challenger, state House Speaker Jeff Merkley was responsible for approving what would have been the largest tax-hike in Oregon history along with plans to raise property and sales taxes. State voters stepped in, however, and shot down all three tax hikes. Despite the best efforts of Democrats, this race is still Smith’s to lose.

Virginia (Democrat Leaning):
R: Jim Gilmore
D: Mark Warner
L: Bill Redpath
G: Glenda Gail Parker

In a classic race between two popular former Virginia governors, Jim Gilmore and Mark Warner are vying for the seat being vacated by five-term Sen. John Warner. In this race, there is no doubt as to who the conservative is: Gilmore is a classic tax-cutting conservative. Before his election to the governor’s office in 1997, Gilmore promised to eliminate Virginia’s automobile property tax and he promptly did so after his win. He also cut $1.5 billion more by eliminating wasteful spending. Warner, who succeeded Gilmore in the governor’s office, raised taxes $1.38 billion, despite three separate campaign promises not to do so. Warner is the favorite to win this race, however, because of the liberal influence that has seeped into Virginia from metropolitan Washington, DC.

Although it is doubtful that Libertarian candidate Bill Redpath (the party’s national chairman), or Green Party candidate Glenda Gail Parker will generate even 10 percent of the vote together, it is unclear what effect this will have on the outcome of the race for either Gilmore or Warner. It could be meaningless – with Parker siphoning votes away from Warner and Redpath siphoning votes away from Gilmore – or it could be substantial -- with Parker and Redpath both pulling votes from Warner. In either case, the race will be one of the most important in the 2008 election cycle.