Below are projections for the 2014 US Senate, based exclusively on the most recent polling data. This will be updated as it becomes available. Most frequently cited polls are Public Policy Polling (PPP), a Democratic firm, and Harper Polling, a Republican one, and Rasmussen Reports.
There have been two changes since our last update. Michigan has returned to the Democrats, while Joni Ernst has put Iowa into the Republican column. The GOP is currently projected to take control of the US Senate.
Democratic Seats Not Up for Re-election: 34
Republican Seats Not Up for Re-election: 31
Democratic Seats Flipped: 7/21
Republican Seats Flipped: 0/14
Total Projected Democratic Seats: 48 (-7)
Total Projected Republican Seats: 52 (+7)
*Note: Projection is based solely on recent polling data. Polling data is a mixture of independent news sources and, in many cases, partisan firms hired by Republican or Democratic groups. Ties are given to the incumbent party for projection purposes. Keep in mind that the the GOP establishment had 8 races they were expected to either win or be competitive in, and won 0 of them in 2012.
Most Recent Polling Data Used in Projections
Alaska - In the GOP primary, Lt. Governor Mead Treadwell is on the downswing and he now trails former Alaska Attorney General Daniel S. Sullivan by slim margins. The polls have been shifting up and down, with Begich leading or trailing Sullivan and Treadwell by slim margins. The primary is not until August 19, so watch for a GOP support boom once the primary is over. (No Change)
Arkansas - Incumbent Mark Pryor (D) is in trouble and is trailing Tom Cotton 46-41% and 47-43% according to two late May polls. In 2010, Democrat Blanche Lincoln was crushed in her first re-election bid since voting for Obamacare. (Flip to R)
Colorado - Democrat Mark Udall is clinging to a low single-digit leads against Congressman Cory Gardner. The race has been consistently tight according to polls taken between March and May, 2014. While Colorado has led in eight of nine polls taken, six of those polls had his lead at under two points. (No Change)
Georgia - Democrat Michelle Nunn is the Democratic nominee running on her family name, if little else. The Republican nominee will either be US Rep. Jack Kingston or businessman David Purdue. Early polls have shown a close race - and some Nunn leads - though a post-primary poll had the Republicans leading by five and six points, respectively. (Leans GOP)
Iowa - The Democratic field was cleared early on for Congressman Bruce Braley - a trial lawyer who made a big mistake by attacking the state's most popular politician, US Senator Chuck Grassley. That the attack was based on Grassley's farmer roots made things worse. The GOP nominated the Sarah Palin and Mitt Romney backed Joni Ernst. Ernst is fighting to be the state's first women sent to Washington and has a background that is authentically Iowan. Post-primary, Ernst opened up a 6-point lead according to a Loras poll and a slimmer 45-44% lead according to Rasmussen. (Flip to GOP)
Kentucky - Mitch McConnell won his contested primary with 60% of the vote and had to outspend his opponent big time to do it. McConnell looked in trouble before the primary, but many Bevin voters were clearly not polling in his favor. Since being re-nominated, McConnell jumped out to his two biggest leads against the Hollywood-and-Obama backed Allison Grimes. He led 48-41% according to a Rasmussen poll, and 47-44% in a second poll. (No Change)
Louisiana - Louisiana has a "jungle primary" where multiple candidates from all parties face off in one election. If no candidate receives 50%, the top two go to a runoff. This race seems to be headed there as Landrieu has under 50% against two Republicans, moderate congressman Bill Cassidy and the tea-party endorsed Rob Maness. In three 2014 polls, Cassidy leads Landrieu 44-40% in one hypothetical runoff scenario, 45-44 in Harper, and trails 44-45% in PPP, which is not good news for the incumbent this early. (Flip to R)
Michigan - Former Republican Secretary of State Terri Lynn Land had most of the momentum early in the year, putting this race in the "Flip to R" category. But Congressman Gary Peters turned that poll drought around and has led by roughly five points in four straight polls. (Remains D)
Montana - Republican Congressman Steve Daines has leads between 7-17 points. Incumbent Democrat Max Baucus conveniently took an early retirement and gave the Democratic Governor the opportunity to appoint someone to the seat ahead of the election, and so he appointed presumptive nominee Lt. Governor John Walsh. Daines still led 49-37% in a late April poll. (Flip to R)
North Carolina - Thom Tillis won the Republican primary over a handful of conservative challengers, much to the delight of the GOP establishment. He has led or tied incumbent Kay Hagan in most recent polling, including by 46-41% in a recent Civitas poll. But a Libertarian candidate could cause trouble if Tillis doesn't effectively pull in the block of voters the GOP was so happy to insult during the primary. (Flip to R)
New Hampshire - Former Massachusetts Senator Scott Brown is looking like the Republican Party's best bet to unseat Jeanne Shaheen. He took a 49-44% lead according to a late May poll, his first lead of the election cycle. A separate poll had him trailing 47-35% just a week earlier. We need more than one poll lead to flip this one. (No Change)
South Dakota - Two May polls have former Republican Governor Mike Rounds with double-digit leads over businessman Rick Wieland in the open Democratic seat. This is even with former GOP Senator Larry Presser pulling in a large chunk of support as an independent.. (Flip to R)
West Virginia - Jay Rockefeller (D) is finally retiring, leaving the door open for long-serving congresswoman Shelley Moore Capito (R). A May Rasmussen poll has Capito up by 9 points, while a second poll had her up by 11 in a head-to-head over Secretary of State Natalie Tenant. (Flip to R)