Important 2010 Midterm Senate Races

The credibility of Democratic Senate Banking Chairman Chris Dodd took a major hit in 2008, when it was revealed he received mortgage loans as part of the "Friends of Angelo" program run by subprime mortgage lender Countrywide Financial. His approval ratings dipped even further when voters learned about his questionable associations with various banking organizations, including Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac. In late 2008, former Republican Congressman Rob Simmons jumped to a slight early lead over Dodd, but by May 2009, Simmons has expanded that lead to double digits. Barring some unforeseen ethical calamity on the part of the presumptive GOP nominee, he should coast to victory on Nov. 2, 2010.

The Delaware Senate seat once held by Vice President Joe Biden is one of the GOP's top targets in 2010. Former governor and Republican Congressman Mike Castle is said to be running, and if he does, he'll have an early edge over potential Democratic candidate Beau Biden, Delaware's attorney general. It won't be easy, though. Beau Biden is the president's oldest son, and if he runs, he can expect a lot of money thrown his way from the Democratic machine. Should Biden earn the Democratic nomination, the 2010 general election might be more of a referendum on the job Joe Biden is doing rather than the kind of job Beau Biden would do. If that's the case, the outcome should favor Castle or his potential primary foe, Christine O'Donnell.

With the fallout from Gov. Rod Blagojevich's guilty plea for attempting to sell President Barack Obama's former Senate seat, along with the questionable fund-raising practices of Blagojevich's eventual appointee, Roland Burris, voters in Illinois may be ready to make a change. Burris, who is retiring, currently has the lowest approval ratings of any sitting US Senator. Meanwhile, there are several candidates running for the Democratic and Republican party nominations, early campaign polling has Republican Congressman Mark Kirk with a commanding lead. In a hypothetical match-up with the leading Democratic candidate, Illinois treasurer Alexi Giannoulias, Kirk also carries a strong lead.

Although it is a long shot, there is a possibility of a GOP victory in the most unlikeliest of places -- Massachusetts. The death of longtime Sen. Edward Kennedy in August of 2009 set up a special election for Jan. 19, 2010 (with a primary to be held on Dec. 8, 2009). The winner of that election will serve out the remainder of Kennedy's term, which expires in 2012. Since there is such a short period for could to raise money, many GOPers believe their team had as good an chance as any. Former Red Sox pitcher Curt Schilling briefly flirted with the idea of running for the seat, which would have made for a formidable campaign, but on Sept. 23 he definitively ruled it out, clearing the way for Republican state Sen. Scott Brown.

Another Senate race Republicans will target in 2010 will be in Nevada, where Senate Majority Leader Harry Reid is perhaps the least popular incumbent in the US, and will face an arduous primary battle and general election in his quest for a fifth term. There are no fewer than eight candidates on the Republican side and at least three on the Democratic side. With such a low approval rating from the incumbent, it is entirely likely the next Senator from Nevada will be a Republican -- even though the state traditionally leans Democratic. Early polling has real estate owner Danny Tarkanian leading the field of Republicans. Reid still leads the polls on the Democratic side, but is behind by 10 points in a hypothetical match-up with Tarkanian.

In New York, Gov. David T. Paterson's mishandling of the state deficit and the bumbling manner in which he appointed Hillary Clinton's replacement when she was named Secretary of State alienated popular candidates Caroline Kennedy and state Attorney General Andrew Cuomo, along with their supporters. Paterson's unpopularity with Democrats has hurt his ultimate appointee, Sen. Kristin Gilibrand, giving an early lead to a potential Republican candidate ... if only there were one. Popular Congressman Peter King isn't running, nor is former New York Mayor Rudy Giuliani (although he hasn't ruled out a run for governor). Former Gov. George Pataki is said to be considering a run, but until he actually does, the field is wide open for the GOP.

In Pennsylvania, Sen. Arlen Specter was losing so badly to former Congressman Pat Toomey that Specter had to switch party affiliations just to avoid getting trounced by the Republican rival. Toomey nearly beat Specter in 2004, losing by just two points. Specter, however, may not even be able to beat his opponent in the Democratic primary, popular Congressman Joe Sestak. In a Sestak-Toomey match-up, Toomey is projected as the favorite. Factor in an eight-year cycle that will swing back to Republicans in 2010, and the race is Tommey's to lose.