Important 2010 Midterm House Races

Incumbent Democrat Bobby Bright, a former Montgomery City Mayor, is vulnerable in 2010 and likely will be challenged by Republican Martha Roby, a Montgomery councilwoman, in the general election. In the heavily-Republican district, Bright has never fully embraced his Democratic affiliation and has broken ranks with fellow Democrats on every major vote in Congress, and there were even questions he would run for re-election as a Democrat. Without the large black voter turnout President Barack Obama helped deliver in 2008, Bright will have a difficult go of it -- especially with Republicans pouring resources into this contest. The GOP needs a victory here; if Bright wins, he may very well sail to re-election as a two-term incumbent in 2012.

In 2008, Democrat Walt Minnick rode Obama's coattails into office, defeating GOP incumbent Bill Sali in this heavily-Republican district by the slimmest of margins, 51-49. Iraq veteran Vaughn Ward of Eagle has announced he'll run against Minnick in 2010, setting the stage for an important Republican comeback. The race could get complicated, however, with state treasurer Ron Crane, state Sen. John McGee, state GOP Chairman Ken Roberts, Eagle city councilman Norm Semanko, former state controller Keith Johnson and state Reps. Mike Moyle and Ken Roberts all considering a run in the Republican primary. Ward had raised the most money by October 2009. His $170,000, howeverwas far behind Minnick's total of $710,000 during that same period.

Incumbent Democrat Frank M. Kratovil, Jr., a former Queen Anne's County states attorney will again square off against Republican state Sen. Andy Harris in a rematch of the 2008 campaign. Although the first district has a large Republican edge in voter registration, the former GOP Congressman, Wayne Gilchrest was a moderate. Harris, a conservative, beat Gilchrest in the 2008 primary, leading the ousted Congressman to back Kratovil. Gilchrest's backing, a lack of interest in the race from the national GOP and the Democratic tidal wave all combined to give Kratovil the win. The national GOP won't make the same mistake twice and Harris is already working to rebuild 2008's burned bridges. Barring a GOP scandal, this is Harris' race to lose.

Incumbent "Blue Dog" Democrat Travis Childers, who won a 2008 special election to fill a vacant seat, then followed it up with a victory later that year for a full term, will face Republican state Sen. Alan Nunnelee in 2010. While Childers has a larger campaign fund, Nunnelee has proved to be a prodigious fund-raiser, raising more than $220,000 in less than two months, and unlike Childers, most of Nunnelee's contributions come from Mississippi citizens. It is still possible more Republicans could enter the race for the GOP primary, but none are expected to give Nunnelee much of a challenge. Should he emerge victorious, expect the national GOP to pour money into this race, as it will be one of the most-watched in the country.

The first woman ever to serve New Hampshire in Congress, Democrat Carol Shea-Porter beat incumbent Republican Jeb Bradely in 2006 and again 2008. In 2010, however, Shea-Porter will face her stiffest competition yet as she not only faces Manchester Mayor Frank Guinta in her third bid for re-election, but also the entire National Republican Campaign Caucus (NRCC), which has targeted her seat as one of its most important in returning the House to GOP control. Early polling had Shea-Porter ahead of Guinta by a slim margin, but this was seen as good news for a Republican candidate who has never campaigned outside Manchester. Guinta and members of the NRCC believe they'll be able to capitalize on Shea-Porter's dismal favorable ratings.

First-term Incumbent Democrat Harry Teague faces a much tougher challenge than he did in 2008, when he beat to win the seat. Former House Rep. Steve Pearce, who held the seat from 2001 to 2009, returns in 2010 to reclaim his seat. Pearce didn't run in 2008, choosing instead to pursue a failed bid for Senate. Teague ultimately beat rancher and restaurateur Edward Tinsley,a campaign newcomer, by a margin of 56-44. Teague's strong Latino support most likely won't be there for him without Obama at the head of the ticket to pull votes. Traditionally a conservative area, a large contingent of first-time voters came out for Obama, causing the Second District to lean heavily to the left in 2008. Things should return to normal in 2010.

First-term Democratic incumbent Eric Massa, who is running for re-election in 2010, told a group of Pennsylvania Netroot activists that he would vote against his own district's best interests in order to further Obama's liberal agenda on health care reform. Not a wise move in a district that has only had one other Democratic representative since 1913, Stan Lundine from 1976-1986. A host of Republicans are running for the seat, however, and this typically makes for a contentious primary. GOP candidates include Monroe County Executive Maggie Brooks, attorney Bill Nojay, state Assemblyman Tom O’Mara, Corning Mayor Tom Reed, Chemung County Executive Tom Santulli, and state Senators George Winner and Catharine Young and George Winner.

First-term incumbent Democrat Steve Driehaus will face a rematch of his 2008 contest against former Republican Rep. Steve Chabot, who had served the conservative district since 1995. Driehaus unseated Chabot by a tight margin, 52-48. In the 2010 campaign, the two are neck-and-neck in fund-raising and are locked in a duke-it-out campaign, each unfettered by a Republican challenger. Republicans are convinced that had it not been for the high African-American turnout for Obama in 2008, Chabot would still be the district's Congressman, and Driehaus has done nothing to secure the black vote in 2010. Chabot, backed by National Republicans, will focus as much national attention on this race to portray Driehaus as the champion of Obama's politics.

First-term Democrat Mary Jo Kilroy became only the second Democrat to represent the district since 1963, when Robert Secrest blew in on John F. Kennedy's coattails and resigned three years later in 1966. In 2010, former Republican state Sen. Steve Stivers hopes he'll be able to bring the seat back to Republicans, despite his loss to Kilroy in 2008, when the two vied for the seat being vacated by retiring Republican Rep. Deborah Pryce. Just 2,300 votes separated Stivers and Kilroy in 2008 -- an encouraging sign for Stivers, who will have the entire NRCC behind him.

Popular Democratic incumbent Joe Sestak is retiring to give vulnerable Republican-turned-Democrat Arlen Specter a battle for his potential sixth term in the US Senate. The vacancy gives Republicans a big opportunity to pick up an additional Congressional seat. Pennsylvania voters tend to vote in cycles in gubernatorial elections, and with Democrat Ed Rendell stepping down after eight years, Republicans likely will dominate state-wide tickets. Sestak was only the second Democrat to serve the district since 1939. For former Republican US Attorney Pat Meehan, the scenario couldn't look better.

Freshman Democrat Tom Perriello beat Republican incumbent Virgil Goode by just 745 votes in 2008, but in 2009, Good announced that he would not seek a rematch. Although the fifth Congressional district seat is typically Democrat-controlled -- and has been since 1893 -- Republicans believe they have a strong shot at beating Perriello in 2010. As of October 2009, four Republicans had announced their candidacies: assembly line worker Bradley Rees, Republican activist and teacher Feda Kidd Morton, real estate investor Laurence Verg, and state Senator Robert Hurt.