The Disappointment Factor
As a candidate, Barack Obama campaigned on a promise of change, and millions of Americans bought into it, believing he would turn around the economy first and foremost. Instead, his preoccupation with implementing the liberal agenda as quickly as possible has taken precedent of everything else. While none of this was a surprise to conservatives, rank-and-file Democrats have expressed genuine surprise that Obama has not accomplished more since taking office. Not only has he shown that he's incapable of making definitive decisions on hot-button issues, his vision of a new post-partisan, post-racial era has been mired in controversy from one end of his administration to the other.
The Economy
The stagnating economy is an issue that hasn't gone away despite the picaresque portraits painted by Democrats during the 2008 presidential campaign and beyond. In late 2009, the administration started seeing the problem, and people like Fed Chairman Ben Bernanke began trying to convince taxpayers that the economy was improving, while all signs indicated otherwise. This, too, is a result of the president trying to do too much too soon. Rather than focusing on pulling the economy out of the recession, Obama has been mired in the same partisan behavior that has hurt previous administrations. Things were supposed to be different under Obama ... instead, there is just more of the same.
It's Not 2008
Finally, without a popular figure at the top of the ticket, all those first-time voters who came out for Obama in 2008, likely will stay home in 2010. By the time the 2008 presidential election rolled around, Obama had been whipping his base into a frenzy since 2007 and people were almost foaming at the mouth to vote. As president, however, he has spread himself painfully thin, and hasn't done much to motivate the base in terms of getting out the vote. This means the hard-core voters -- the ones who turn out regardless of the weather or the latest flash in the pan candidate -- will once again resume control of the polls. These voters tend to be elderly and conservative; not the Democrats' greatest supporters.
A Stacked Deck
With the Left upset because Obama, Senate Leader Harry Reid, and House Speaker Nancy Pelosi haven't done enough and the right upset because they've done too much, the moderates are left to sort things out. This does not bode well for Democrats. William Weiss, a regular contributor to this site, is as moderate as they come, yet his frustration with the Obama administration is palpable. He and other moderates are almost universally leaning to the right this time around and, after the way the Democrats have treated conservative Republicans since seizing control of Congress, right-wingers are extremely motivated to deliver a powerful blow to Obama and the Democrats.
Key Gubernatorial Races:
- Arizona (primary Feb. 5)
- California (primary Feb. 5)
- Illinois (primary Feb. 5)
- Michigan (primary Jan. 15)
- New York (primary Feb. 5)
- Pennsylvania (primary April 22)
- California (primary Feb. 5)
- Colorado (primary Feb. 5)
- Connecticut (primary Feb. 5)
- Delaware (primary Feb. 5)
- Illinois (primary Feb. 5)
- Kentucky (primary May 20) *
- Louisiana (primary Feb. 9) *
- Missouri (primary Feb. 5) *
- Nevada (primary Jan. 19)
- New Hampshire (primary Jan. 8) *
- North Carolina (primary May 6)
- Ohio (primary March 4) *
- Pennsylvania (primary April 22)
- Texas (primary March 4) *
Key House Races:
- Alabama's Second District (primary Feb. 5)
- Idaho's First District (primary may 27)
- Maryland's First District (primary Feb. 12)
- Mississippi's First District (primary March 11)
- New Hampsire's First District (primary Jan. 8)
- New Mexico's First District (primary June 3)
- New York's 29th District (primary Feb. 5)
- Ohio's First and 15th districts (primary March 4)
- Pennsylvania's Seventh District (primary April 22)
- Virginia's Fifth District (primary Feb. 12)
