While many have pegged this race as "leans Democrat" it's hard not to imagine it as a solid toss-up. It wouldn't even be a big surprise to see the GOP nominee with a healthy lead by the time the election rolls around as Democrat Mark Begich simply does not have a lot in his favor. He was barely acceptable - and barely won - as the alternative to a guy who was facing Senate expulsion and was politically persecuted just days before the election. He's not only battling his opponent, but a really strong slate of Republicans in other races for Governor, Lt. Governor, and congress who are all expected to win and turn out plenty of Republican voters. Two January, 2014 polls (one Republican, one Democratic firm) average out to a 42-41% lead for the mostly unknown Sullivan and a 42-42% split with Lt Governor Mead Treadwell. That's not where one wants to be as an incumbent, against two mostly unknown candidates, in a state that almost always votes for Republican.