While he picked up Indiana and North Carolina, Romney will apparently lose Florida, Virginia, and Ohio by less than 1% apiece. So, where did it all go wrong?:
1) Romney and - even worse - the media gave Obama a pass on Libya. What happened there would have sunk most men, but it was a non-factor. Fast and Furious remained a non issue for the media. And Obamacare was not enough of an emphasis for the Romney campaign.
2) The Missing 4 Days - When Sandy hit the east coast, it effectively ended the campaign for four days at a time when Romney had all of the momentum. He had hit his stride and was riding high with Independents and across the board. That four days wiped out almost all of the momentum, and the race returned to a dead heat.
3) A Photo-Op - When I made my predictions (obviously for a Romney win) I refused to believe that Obama walking on a beach and posing for photographs after Sandy would win him any votes. According to exit polls, that had an impact on a whopping 15% of voters. Did it provide the margin in some states? Perhaps.
4) $1B - Both sides spent a ton of money. With Early Voting and endless cash supplies, campaigns now are more about how many people you can drag to the polls over a month's time. Virginia and North Carolina are now legitimate swing states. That's devestating news for the Republican Party.