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Dustin Hawkins

One Last Day: What History Says about State Poll Accuracy

By November 5, 2012

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It is one day before the presidential election, and polls show Barack Obama will win a lot of states by a very small margin. In fact, all of the 11 battlegrounds fall into what I like to call the Margin of Wrongness - the average number of points that state polls were off versus state polls this year. So polls might predict a lot of narrow wins in a lot of states, but what does history predict? I will have a prediction post later, but for now:

Read More: Polls and the "Margin of Wrongness"


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