So, what was the net effect of the Obamacare ruling and what effect might it have on 2012 voter turnout and enthusiasm? Well, here is a peak of how each candidate's websites ticked up in the 2 days following the Obamacare ruling:
While both candidates saw an uptick in website hits, Romney's ranking improved by some 15,000 slots in 1 day, according to website ranker Alexa.com. This was also easily the highest web ranking for the Mitt Romney campaign site for all available data, easily surpassing upticks from winning big primaries and even clinching the nomination. Obama's site saw movement, by about 1,500 slots, but remained in an area he had hit multiple times before.
Now, for thoughts on why Obama is in trouble:
It's 4 months before the general election. Most people do not know a lot about Mitt Romney. Barely 5 million people bothered to watch any debates he was in (or, about 2% of all likely voters). He hasn't selected a VP and hasn't had a national stage. Yet, President Obama rarely breaks 50% in polls, and his numbers in states like Michigan, Colorado, Wisconsin, Pennsylvania, and Florida have him well below where he finished 4 years earlier. And most of these polls are still in the "registered voter" phase where they do not bother to filter out unlikely voters, who mostly vote for Democrats. At the same time, most of these polls use samples that reflect 2008 turnout, a model that is not likely to be replicated. Add to this that Camp Obama outspent Camp Romney by an astounding 600% in May. Yet, despite all this Obama is hanging around 46% in polls?
Obamacare:Not only does Obama have to defend his massive multi-trillion-dollar spending spree with practically no economic improvement, now he gets to defend Obamacare and the Mandate Tax. I'm sure Obama is thrilled that he now gets to defend the individual mandate tax, the most hated law in the country, which happens to be his signature achievement. Sure, plenty of people will be trotted out with Republicans pushing people over cliffs, but how did that strategy work out in 2010? Yep, the biggest issue of that year just lept well above Obama's wish-list of topics that ranges from birth control to gay marriage.
Faltering Obama Attacks
The Obama campaign is running through anti-Romney talking points and it's barely July. They've attacked Romney's dog, and made pitches to women through a phony birth-control controversy, to the gay community by promising moral support on marriage but doing nothing, and tossing just-don't-call-it-amnesty to the Hispanic base. But the Obama campaign favorite is Bain, a line of attack that worked splendidly against Romney in the Republican primary. Even if Bain were to be a major sticking point with voters, it hardly has the impact of, oh, say, Obamacare and it's a lot harder to keep something like Bain (where the attacks have been stretched quite a bit anyway) to be continuously effective for many months.
Well, Uhhh, Romneycare!Obama believes his best defense of Obamacare is to blame Romney for giving him the idea and the foundation. Do you really want to be in the position of saying that your signature achievement, which you believe is genius and wonderful, was basically stolen from the state-tested model of your opponent, who you claim wouldn't be good at running the country? You are saying that your best bill was created by Mitt Romney! Genius! What next, going to give George W. Bush credit for the bin Laden kill? (Okay, no need to get crazy now!).