One month from today, the 2012 Republican primary season will begin as Iowans take to the state's first-in-the-nation caucuses.Despite years of media blackouts, ostracization by GOP groups and eye-rolling from pundits, Texas Congressman Ron Paul is within reach to turn the supposed conventional wisdom on its head.
He is, after all, perhaps the only serious conservative option left.
According to the current RealClearPolitics average, former House speaker Newt Gingrich leads Iowa Caucus polls with 26.3 percent, followed by former Massachusetts Gov. Mitt Romney (15 percent); Herman Cain (14.3 percent) and Paul, closing in at 11 percent, well within the margin of error for most polls.
If Cain, damaged by multiple allegations of infidelity and sexual harassment, announces he is dropping out of the race in Atlanta, Ga., today as close supporters suspect might happen, Paul will have no trouble leveling with Iowans about Romney or Gingrich's less-than-stellar "conservative" records.
Paul is unlikely to challenge the former chairman of Godfather's Pizza and author of the 9-9-9 plan on moral issues, telling FOX News' Neil Cavuto the scandal is a distraction. But, it certainly doesn't bode well for Cain.
Romney's second-place position is in peril as he has made a calculated decision to spend more time outside of Iowa in recent months, prompting Gov. Terry Brandstad to acknowledge he could lose the nomination without Iowa.
Gingrich was already on shaky ground with some conservatives as he grabbed frontrunner status two weeks ago, given his penchant for getting cozy with Nancy Pelosi and other liberals in the past. Now, Paul's "Serial Hypocrisy" ad is gaining viral status, as bloggers and media outlets replay his hand on television and across the web.
That leaves us with Ron Paul.
With a loyal following and a ground campaign Branstad said was the strongest, the grassroots activities of 2008 activists may finally yield a harvest in the fields of Iowa. A potential indicator of how well his message resonates amongst Iowan voters might have been gauged at the Debuque Tea Party Straw Poll, which Paul won by a 2-to-1 margin Thursday.
Paul took second in the Ames Straw Poll in August.
Remember, Sen. McCain was ranked third in Iowa only to come from behind to win the nomination in 2008, and he was far from a conservative. Paul, on the other hand, has been underestimated by most, even as polls and contributions have shown a groundswell of support.
A first or second place finish in Iowa would thus require every candidate to begin debating him on the issues Paul excels in during the debates, defending records or the status quo in a way that would put most of those candidates to the left of the congressman. This puts him in the driver's seat to frame the debate, because like it or not, no one could ever label Paul a hypocrite.
The media, too, would be forced to report the results and seriously consider Paul, who for all intents and purposes, has been left out of the public square and the spotlight despite being as serious a candidate in fundraising as Texas Gov. Rick Perry, Romney or Cain.
Whether this makes Paul invincible is beyond me to predict, but all indications are that the "Ron Paul Revolution" will be a force to be reckoned with in 2012.
--Brandon De Hoyos, Guide to IM
Comments
I feel pandered to, but I like it.
Ron Paul 2012!
Great Article! Very informed, and outside the bogus media blackout on this candidate.
President Ron Paul 2012
Live free or die
interesting take.
i think you’re deluding yourself if you think the MSM and their masters would be forced to take Paul seriously if he won Iowa.
they are already discounting a win in Iowa as meaningless. You’ll see them say it’s a backwater state that does not reflect the real views of America.
Dr. Ron Paul is what we need now. This country has been lied and abused for too long and the people are just fed up with it. I admit no one is perfect but Ron is as close as it gets. Thank you for the article.
It’s actually quite dangerous for the Republican Party NOT to endorse Ron Paul. If he runs as a 3rd party he’ll take a huge base of supporters with him. And if you know anything about Ron Paul supporters you know they’re Ron Paul or nothing. Thus making it almost impossible for whoever the Republican nominee would be to get the votes needed to beat Obama.
One of three things is going to happen:
1. Ron Paul doesn’t get the nomination and runs as a third party candidate: The new NBC/Wall Street Journal poll suggests Ron Paul would win 18 percent as a third-party candidate running against Obama and Romney. Obama wins.
2. Ron Paul drops out: fervent and stubborn Ron Paul supporters stay home or write him in. Obama wins.
3. Ron Paul gets the GOP nomination: Ron Paul gets the following voters: (a. 2008 Obama voters who thought they were going to get ‘Change’, (b. 2008 Obama voters who voted to end the wars, (c. the VAST majority of the Independent vote, (d. the entire GOP voting block who dislikes Obama enough to vote for Ron Paul instead. (e. Ron Paul supporters coming out to vote in DROVES. Ron Paul wins.)
So if your main goal is just to make sure Obama isn’t in office for another term, you’re seriously going to need to learn more about Ron Paul and find the common ground you have with him as opposed to what you don’t like.
Thank you sir for the fair reporting. Ron Paul supporters are not looking for the media to worship the ground he walks on but we are looking to see that RP gets his due. Your article does that quite nicely.
If people were to actually look into what a true conservative represents and then check that against these candidates’ records, they’d realize that RP is the best option, perhaps the ONLY option. And you are absolutely right, he is principled and does not waver on his stances for political expediency or pandering. So you know what you are gonna get with RP, he means what he says.
So again, thank you for the fair reporting. I wish there were more journalists out there like you, America really needs them. Take care.
Anonoped, I think you are probably right, but think the media would look very bad if they somehow opted not to report Ron Paul’s upset in Iowa, because I am pretty sure that’s exactly what will be. Granted, the media’s never been fair to Ron Paul, so, January 3rd will be the most or least surprising night on television.
I admittedly wasn’t always a Ron Paul kind of guy, but, I woke up this week. Ron Paul is not only right about most of what he says, he’s the only serious conservative left in this race. Period.
While Rick Perry, Michele Bachmann and the terribly boring Rick Santorum all have some conservative qualities, they also have all shown an acumen for making decisions which defy constitutional authority and reak of progressivism. As I said above, nobody can ever label Ron Paul as a hypocrite as Gingrich and the rest could carry, because he’s never flinched from telling it as it really is, even when it hurts his own party.
My problem was I couldn’t handle the truth in 2008 and through the beginnings of this election cycle. But, the truth is liberating. I only hope more Republicans will see it this way.
Everyone has their own selfish agenda and will try to buy their candidate. Newt is the candidate for those who profit from war. The folks who vote for the greater good, vote Ron Paul. Anyway, what difference does it make what a campaigning politician says when they lie or their stance is as firm as next week’s weather forecast? Mitt and Newt will say what the guy with the checkbook wants to hear. History proves that. No integrity.
I just wrote a nasty letter to NPR for failure to report about Ron Paul,, and they lost a 2500.oo dollar donation because of it.
I gave the money to Ron Paul and NORML.org
Thank you for the article. It’s always refreshing to read a non hit piece on the champion of the constitution. Unfortunately, the media have already started down playing an Iowa win. And, they will keep doing that until he’s in the White House. Once that happens, it is the end of corporatism and the end of crony capitalism. It will be the end of an era. Change is hard, but necessary. Let’s take our country back…Ron Paul 2012!
Your article is a breath of fresh air! Well done.
RON PAUL 2012
The Republican Party Establishment would be wise to embrace Ron Paul so as to be associated with leadership for real change rather than be left behind defending status quo positions.
When presented with the choice of never ending wars, bankruptcy, and full scale Depression or starting the process of recovery by attacking the deficit, Ron Paul’s message can only grow among voters.
There are already signs of support for Ron Paul coming from traditional Democratic voters who are close observers of the political scene. As Ron Paul’s views become more known to mainstream Democrats, particularly when it comes to the wars, one can see the great potential for his winning the general election. Polls show that Ron Paul already beats Obama when it comes to independent voters.
The Republicans can not afford anymore surprises. Ron Paul has no skeletons in his closet. His consistency to principles when it comes to voting record as well as personal life can only be admired. Bringing in and keeping the hearts and minds of the massive following that Ron Paul has among the younger generation should be very appealing when it comes to the future of the Republican Party.
The most important reason why the Republican Party Establishment should embrace Ron Paul is doing what’s best for the country. The trust and credibility that Ron Paul has earned will allow him to successfully explain the need for some patience and sacrifice to work our way out of the present economic crisis, which will be required of our next President. The actions that he proposes are absolutely needed to start the recovery process.
Jan 4th 2012 headlines will read – “Newt wins second place in Iowa, Romney in third, with Cain, Perry, Bachman, and Santorum all below 5%”!
Learn about Ron Paul at http://whyronpaul.com/
whyronpaul.com/
Let me begin by saying that in 2008 i voted for Obama because i could not support four more years of Republican rule after the Bush years. in my home state of Iowa i caucused for Obama and was a delegate for him at the Democratic state convention. I have watched President Obama expand the war in Afghanistan, rattle sabres against Iran, expand drone strikes into Pakistan, and help create a civil war in Libya. I did not vote for that. If Congressman Paul is the GOP nominee in 2012 i will vote for him, and so will many others just like me (and there are lots of us). That being said, i will not vote for any of the other GOP candidates as i view the rest as beng either fatally compromised or batshit crazy (and in most cases both).
We’re on the verge of abolishing slavery in America and people want to do soap opera politics.
Ron Paul’s aim is to abolish the debt slavery & tax bondage of the FED/IRS Complex.
Over the 100 years of slavery we have gradually lost most of what America set out to be, do and have.
We are not free. We are slaves.
Force people to put aside all of the non-essential issues and focus on abolishing slavery. Let’s start there. Our first priority is to regain our liberty, peace and prosperity.
I appreciate the article from Brandon. But I think the poll he listed is wrong. That in no way is his fault, he just reports what he gets. I am quite sure those polls are incorrect.. For instance take the TeleResearch poll which was held the last of November. There were almost 3000 polled in Iowa which is far greater than most polls and the poll also considered cross over Democrats. Paul come out way ahead of all other candidates. Now lets consider the supporters of all candidates, and which candidate has the most determined supporters. Every one knows who that is, that is Ron Paul. Rain sleet nor snow will stop his supporters. Next if we consider the age group of the supporters we find that Paul has the youth on his side and the other candidates get the older group like my self. You take me for instance, let my gout flare up and I’m staying home, have no choice because I can not walk. Last the supporters of the other candidates are not that enthused about them. Sure if they make it to the polls they will more than likely vote for them but considering their age and lack of enthusiasm for their candidate it will take very little for them to sit out the event. Then also take into consideration that only 4-5 % vote in Iowa in the first place. I truly believe we will see a complete blow out in Iowa. Yes I could be wrong but with all things considered I don’t believe I am. Let’s all hope I am right.
The TeleResearch poll which polled close to 3000 voters in Iowa and took in to consideration crossover Democrats has Paul well ahead of the other candidates. I would be more apt to trust this poll when compared to all the other polls. Taking into consideration that Paul has the youth on his side, he has the most die in the woods supporters and he is in good shape in Iowa. His support will get out and vote make no mistake about that. This can not be said about the supporters of all the other candidates. I think we are going to see a blowout in Iowa.
Media will report that Iowa does not matter. Immediately after elections, attention will be focused to NH and Florida where real frontrunner are expected to win. Iowa will not be covered in media too much in order not to confuse voters on who the real frontrunners are.
the republicans would rather lose than nominate paul, the two party oligarchy, both d’s and r’s lose both power and money with a paul (the people) win.
Paul is not our savior, we must demand our liberty, equal station, no matter the results of the election. A paul victory does not = liberty, it only makes it easier.
We must elect libertarians to LOCAL offices to help paul help us. If he loses we’ll still be on the right track
An article on the peoples candidate Ron Paul with actual facts and truth just about made me choke on my blueberry muffin just now. Thanks goes out to the writer of the article.
Finally the MSM will be forced to talk about the 10 ton elephant in the room!
Go Dr. Paul!
I enjoyed this article very much. I wish more in the press was as open and honest, we would have a much more engaging race with more intelegent dialog.
Great article!! Thank you
Yuhuu RON PAUL 2012, I am all in for this guy. my fully support for RP, love from Indonesia!! if u americans do not elect RP as president, I will doubt you can call yourself intellegent, cause it is just plain fact, RP is the only true statesman with integrity, honest, no sell to crony capitalism and he has solution which make a perfect sense. if you lose this chance…. you may regret!
I am now trying to convince my democrat friends to vote for Ron Paul in the primary just so we can burn the warmongering republicans and then they can vote for Obama in the general election if they still want to. WE need Ron Paul to win the nomination so we at least have the option of ending the wars and bringing all our troops home. I wish and pray that people wake up and realize that the left right paradigm is dying. Ron Paul is the one to really turn this around. I was a delegate for Dr. Paul last time and would be honored to be part of the national delegation to nominate the good Dr. this time.
Ron Paul Supporters: Don’t put it off any longer, support what you believe: https://secure.ronpaul2012.com/
@Ray.. what is “die in the woods”? Do you mean “dyed in the wool”?
go RP2012
I didn’t know Ron Paul until one day I read a comment which talks about Ron Paul’s economic and foreign policies, and then I started to do research on him, then I support him with my whole heart. So, I think people who hope Ron Paul to be president should try various methods to spread his message. Never underestimate Ron Paul’s supporters.
I dig this article, you summed it up nicely… although there are a few dynamics that remain to be seen, like whether or not the establishment and media will take Dr. Paul seriously if he wins Iowa. That’s up in the air, but I especially like the comment about abolishing slavery.
Lets do it.
End The Fed!
Ron Paul is the only candidate that is not a pro-bailout necon war-monger. If you are pro-freedom, pro-peace and anti-bailout, then Ron is really the only choice. I’m a military veteran and father; Ron is the only one I trust to protect our great country and youth.
Great article and I just read everyone’s response to the article. I am a Ron Paul supporter and this is the first time I have ever donated money to any candidate running for any office. I have donated hundreds of dollars and will continue to donate to Ron Paul’s campaign because I feel very strongly that Ron has a plan to turn this country of ours around. He will cut 1 TRILLION DOLLARS IN THE FIRST YEAR. HE WILL BALANCE THE BUDGET IN THREE YEARS. HE WILL BRING HOME OUR TROOPS IMMEDIATELY. Americans, this is only a partial list of what Ron said he would do. To read more about Ron and his plan to restore America, go to ronpaul2012.com And, for those who do not know him yet, we believe he will do what he says because he is one of the most trusted and honest person to hold office all these years. His record in office and out speak for itself. He is one amazing person and he really is the only person who will change the course of history due to his plan for America and Americans!
I just watched the video on youtube (the one hour version) of ‘For Liberty’, a documentary about Ron Paul. It almost made me cry to think that there were so many that believed in him and he was exactly what this country needed in 2008, yet he didn’t win. And now to see that he is running again in 2012, and to watch the debates and read the articles and understand the apparent media bias against him, and to know that there is a gigantic grass roots campaign to send brochures and promote Ron Paul warms my heart yet again. I want this man to win the presidency because he believes in all of what our forefathers believed in. Our country is going down a very dangerous path and he wants to make it right again for all of us. I am voting in the primaries in Texas in 2012.
Just visited whyronpaul.com and it has a wealth of information on it to tell about the guys history, and what he believes in. Its really well put together. Thanks for the link!
Thank you for the interesting take in your article. Personally, I cannot vote for anyone but Dr. Paul. I will vote for him whether he is the nominee or not. I will not vote “anybody but Obama.” I will vote my values and sleep well knowing I did. It’s time the people decide, not the MSM or corporations.
Please, do your own research and vote your conscience. For me, my conscience says Ron Paul and only Ron Paul.
Have a great day!
Looking forward to vote Ron Paul in 2012!
yeah, I could get used to that
This is an excellent article. It is fair and definitely unbiased. Mr. De Hoyos, you are what journalists and reporters should aspire to be. Thank you for your fair coverage.
Angelo S.
Not just debt slavery here in the US, but around the world. The tentacles of the central banking system knows no bounds.
Great post. Great article.
Thanks
To you Democrats below who would vote for Ron in the election if he got the nomination, PLEASE help NOW. Register Republican for only a year so you can vote in this Primary and maybe even be a delegate for HIM. The GOP does not like him much and is not offering him much support. What have you got to LOSE? My gosh, people, if Ron does not win this primary we are going to lose our COUNTRY! PLEASE help and don’t wait. Read more about him. There is a movie called the Ron Paul movie that consolidates a few years into an hour. Watch it if you dare.
At Adam 101…
“The Republican Party Establishment would be wise to embrace Ron Paul
Democrats everywhere would also be wise to support Ron Paul. The real problem is $$$ is well represented to the point where we cannot even have a meaningful conversation about ANY issue from ‘abortion’ to ‘gun control’. Until we get the $$$ out it is useless for us to talk about any issue because we do not have a voice.
Great article! For all the people who are interested in Ron Paul check out the DailyPaul.com or InfoWars.com AWESOME websites.
GREAT ARTICLE! It’s about time.
Gingrich is a charlatan and a traitor and Romney is a used car salesman.
For those of you still enamored of Gingrich you should consider the following:
1) The so called “fiscal conservative” joined forces with Nancy Pelosi to push the Obama administration’s cap and trade agenda that would have completely bled the country. We also have to thank Mr. Gingrich for the $16 TRILLION added to the national debt via the unfunded liability of Medicare Part D.
2) Gingrich supported mandatory health insurance (at least until his poll numbers started going up). Not only did he state it point-blank during that legendary interview on Meet the Press, but he also said it in an OpEd piece he wrote for the Des Moines Register back in 2007. Sorry Virginia, there is no Santa Claus, but there is Newtcare.
3) Gingrich is a globalist who has worked tirelessly to undermine American sovereignty. He supported NAFTA, GATT and the WTO. He is a member of the Council on Foreign Relations and is cozy as can be with Henry Kissinger. Gingrich has openly lamented that the Constitution is a roadblock to a globalism:
“The American challenge in leading the world is compounded by our Constitution….either we’re going to have to rethink our Constitution, or we’re going to have to rethink our process of decision-making.”
WE DO?!?!
Spot on Steve, Dr. Paul is part, not all, of the movement to spread libertarian ideals to America…..we need candidates who embrace libertarian ideals in all levels of government life in order to start turning back the rise of the federal beast to the level it should be to secure the liberties of a free society……time to throw the Neo-Cons and the Socialists out on their ears! The Obama’s and the Gingrich’s have to go from all levels of government.
Anyone who believes that Ron Paul is Conservative and not a Libertarian has been smoking something he/she shouldn’t be smoking. Two positions by Dr. Paul are at odds with Conservatives–real Conservatives, not faux conservatives like Gingrich– Amnesty/illegal immigration and legalizing illicit drugs.
If Ron Paul holds a press conference where he states that he was wrong about pushing Amnesty for illegal aliens and that he promises never to sign an Amnesty/legalization bill, he’ll have a good shot at the nomination. The only thing other than his foreign policy positions of non-interventionism that hurts him with Conservatives is his lacking a law and order position on illegal immigration. As a “laissez faire” pol, arresting and deporting illegal aliens (Federal and state lawbreakers) would go against his convictions but sadly, that’s where the rubber meets the road.
I’ve never seen the crossover voting like I’ve seen this year as both Democrats and Progressive websites are activly promoting an anti-war registration for Ron Paul in the Primaries. This has been occuring in every state Republican chapter. I am amazed at the increase in Republican voters and wonder about the reason for it.
Is it freedom is popular or do the Democrats foolishly think that Ron Paul will be easier to beat?
The only thing I know for sure is that if there is a blizzard in New Hampshire and Iowa Ron Paul supporters will hitch up dog sleds while the others are fair weather patriots.
If you live in Iowa, PLEASE be a poll watcher and report any and all signs of tampering or “back room” counting Please report all results to blogs, because Voters News Service has been caught shaving as much as 13% of off Iowa totals in the past.
In 1992, the book “VOTESCAM: The Stealing of America”, authored by Jim and Ken Collier (Ken is now deceased) – shockingly exposed the results of an investigation into the methodical rape of America’s once free and honest election process. Today there is strong evidence in these current Republican primaries that VOTESCAM is alive and well, brought to us by the Voter’s News Service (VNS), a private corporation created and mutually owned by ABC, CBS, NBC, CNN and AP. Here’s an excerpt:
IOWA
* In Dubuque County citizen volunteers totaled 41 precinct results showing Buchanan with 860 votes, Dole 339 and less than 245 for each of the other candidates.
* As instructed by Iowa Republican Party Chair, Brian Kennedy… vote totals were called in to VNS – not to the Secretary of State, or the Board of Elections or the State Republican Party.
* The following day the DeMoines Register reported Buchanan had 757 votes – 13% less than the actual tally reported. (Lamar Alexander’s count was bumped up 5%).
* Can we assume, if the one county being carefully watched was falsely reported, the same thing happened in all counties? Surely, a loss for Dole in Iowa would have spelled the end of his campaign. Did Buchanan win in Iowa?
End Excerpt.
Keep in mind that vote fraud can change the outcome by a few percentage points, but it cannot reverse a landslide. Even if you hear Ron Paul is doing well (and the media might announce that at the start to dissuade Ron Paul supporters from going to the polls) get out and vote. This election is not a polite political exercise but a down-in-the-dirt bare knuckles fight, and the other side loves to play dirty.
I don’t pay a lot of attention to this Republican side of the race. Ron Paul would do really well this next year without that R by his name. I’m voting again for Obummer. It looks like the Rebublicans are already fighting for another term for him. These Republican candidates are just a bunch of jokes on the American voter. What a bunch of insults also to the intelligence of voters of this country.
Ron Paul has the majority of the polls offline and online, but the media portrays Ron having only 8% of the vote. The media is already stealing the vote to put it in the public’s mind that Ron Paul has no chance. Ron Paul already won!
Ron Paul is my president. I won’t cast my vote for anyone else. Period.
Sorry, but you don’t get it. None of these Republicans want to be elected – they just represent themselves as not electable, in order to give the US with Obama as president a fourth Bush term.
Hi Brandon –
You are correct as far as it goes. The media do under-report on Ron Paul. That includes Sean and Bill who preface any report on Ron Paul with,”He can’t win, but …..”
However, Ron Paul winning Iowa? Only if there is blizzard on primary day.