What to Watch For In the 2009 Midterm Elections
Tomorrow's election will be about more than local issues, and the Democrats know it.
When voters go to the polls on Nov. 3, they'll be thinking about Barack Obama, Nancy Pelosi and Harry Reid. There is truth in Tip O'Neill's famous line, "All politics is local," but in 2009, the bottom line is what matters. And here it is:
Since the Democrats have taken over, nothing has really changed. The recent good news that has been reported about the economy is the result of artificiality, and is only as solid as the next stimulus payment. In terms of generating recovery, there has been no real progress made, and despite Democrats' best efforts, the public knows it.
In all three major races -- the 23rd Congressional District race in upstate New York and the races for governor in New York and Virginia -- recent polling has shown the Republican or conservative candidate ahead.
In New Jersey, Democratic incumbent Jon Corzine is on the ropes against Republican Challenger Chris Christie, who just pulled ahead this morning. President Barack Obama was called in to stop the bleeding, but he may have just opened more old wounds.
Meanwhile, the president has all but abandoned his hopes for victory in Virginia, where Democrat Creigh Deeds has fallen behind Republican Bob McDonnell by double digits.
So, will the 2009 campaign be a signal of what's to come in 2010?
Republicans can bank on it -- particularly if they're conservative Republicans.
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Photo © Mandel Ngan/AFP/Getty Images
Comments
Justin —
Creigh Deeds is running in both Virginia and New Jersey?
Thanks for pointing this out, RT. I’ve made the correction.
You’re welcome.
BTW –
“The recent good news that has been reported about the economy is the result of artificiality, and is only as solid as the next stimulus payment.”
What was that line of Lloyd Bengston in that distant VP debate? “Give me $100B in kited checks and I’ll make things look pretty good, too”? However, in this case. both you and Lloyd would be wrong. Government spending was a factor, but not the only factor, in the 3.5% increase in GDP in the third quarter.
http://www.bea.gov/newsreleases/national/gdp/gdpnewsrelease.htm
To your credit, you are internally consistent:
“The spending package didn’t do enough to offset these declines, which is one reason why the overall GDP continues to sink, year-to-year.”
The spending package was never enough money to fill a $1T gap in yearly GDP. IOW, you are giving government spending far too much credit when things go well and blame when things go badly. Yes, the Obama Administration over sold the effects of the stimulus package. However, that doesn’t mean that the package and the TARP haven’t drawn us back from the edge of the precipice and restored faith in the credit markets. And the public knows it. Even if this is serendipity, this will redound in Obama’s favor. Remember, markets recover all by themselves, don’t they?
As for these elections, Obama barely won the 23rd NY in 2008. Bob McDonnell is a moderate Republican, who has run from his hard right roots. In Virginia. Think about it. And Corzine is within the margin of error in NJ.
Whatever happens, I’m sure that both sides can claim victory. However, you are right about one thing. The GOP has become the party of Rush, Sarah, Sean, Michelle and Glen. It will have deep appeal, but not wide appeal. That might be a problem.