The Relevance of the Popular Vote
After defeating Hillary Clinton "soundly" in North Carolina, Barack Obama's supporters were pulling out stakes, packing up the tent and whistling joyously as they began rolling toward November.
When Sen. Clinton surreptitiously stole what Sen. Obama had predicted would be his 7-point victory in Indiana (a state that neighbors his home state of Illinois), Obama's people confidently dismissed it as an anamoly -- an insignificant afterthought to a momentus North Carolina win. While this ploy may have succeeded in hurting Clinton's overall campaign, it also marginalized many Indiana Democrats -- something neither candidate can afford if they want to win in November.
Now, it appears West Virginia will go to Clinton and not by the skinny margin she claimed in Indiana. According to this poll, conducted by the American Research Group, Clinton may beat Obama by more points than he beat her in North Carolina.
Perhaps the most interesting thing to come from tomorrow's vote is the possibility that if Clinton were to win as predicted, she could pick up the lead in the popular vote. Nevertheless, Obama's supporters maintain he is the nominee, regardless of what the will of the people may indicate.
I wonder how many of these supporters were fighting in favor of the popular vote during the 2000 presidential election, when Vice President Al Gore was standing his ground in Florida against GOP nominee George W. Bush. Turns out, Bush actually lost the popular vote, but won the electoral college, which means that if this campaign should have similar results, Obama and Bush would have in common the same kind of win. The only question is whether it would fly with rank-and-file Democrats, or more importantly, voters in the general election.
About the only thing certain right now is that the race between Barack Obama and Hillary Clinton is neck-and-neck, and it appears unlikely either candidate will have enough delegates to clinch the nomination by June 3, making the Democratic National Convention in August important to every voter -- liberal and conservative.
Obama Photo © Mark Wilson/Getty Images
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Comments
With all due respect to Mr. Quinn, I am compelled to correct his analysis which appears to be predicated on incorrect information.
The race is not as close as Mr. Quinn would have us believe. For ex., Obama currently leads the popular vote by 846,801 votes. If FL and MI votes are included (remember, Obama wasn’t even on the slate in MI, he still leads in the popular vote by 223,720. He has won twice as many states, is leading in total delegates by 1867 vs Clinton’s 1698. He is 158 delegates away from the 2,025 required for the nomination vs Clinton’s 327.
Clinton was always slated to win WVA and KY, and she and the ex-President are campaigning their brains out there right now to clinch the deal. Obama is obviously prepared to let her have the swan song she so badly wants, and he is focusing his attention right now on gearing up to win against McCain in the Fall - wise decision, rather than waste energy in the states where Clinton is hell bent on winning at all costs. Plus, since he is likely to win Oregon and Montana, her WVA/KY wins will cancel out against his huge current lead and the volume of delegates remaining in the six primaries is such that even if Clinton won them all, at 75%/25%, she will still not be able to catch up with Obama.
Hence, her running until the end is purely academic, symbolic, ego-driven, call it what you wish but it means nothing. Despite her posturing, and her campaign antics, Obama is the presumptive nominee.
Uhm, does it mean that if Obama wins the popular vote, people will leave him alone? because he nows leads the popular votes and has been leading in the popular votes form months, and this even if florida is counted. Funny how people want the rule chages just because it might favor their canditates? And people tries to make the person that follows the rule the bad guy
The race is not “neck-and-neck”. Obama is clearly in the lead.
Why does a conservative site care so much about a race between two liberals?
IT’S ABOUT ELECTABILITY !!!
MY FELLOW “BITTER”, STUPID, WORKING CLASS PEOPLE
If you think like Barack Obama, that WORKING CLASS PEOPLE are just a bunch of “BITTER”!, STUPID, PEASANTS, Cash COWS!, and CANNON FODDER.
You Might Be An Idiot!
If you think Barack Obama with little or no experience would be better than Hillary Clinton with 35 years experience.
You Might Be An Idiot!
If you think that Obama with no experience can fix an economy on the verge of collapse better than Hillary Clinton. Whose
husband (Bill Clinton) led the greatest economic expansion, and prosperity in American history.
You Might Be An Idiot!
If you think that Obama with no experience fighting for universal health care can get it for you better than Hillary Clinton. Who anticipated this current health care crisis back in 1993, and fought a pitched battle against overwhelming odds to get universal health care for all the American people.
You Might Be An Idiot!
If you think that Obama with no experience can manage, and get us out of two wars better than Hillary Clinton. Whose
husband (Bill Clinton) went to war only when he was convinced that he absolutely had to. Then completed the mission in record time against a nuclear power. AND DID NOT LOSE THE LIFE OF A SINGLE AMERICAN SOLDIER. NOT ONE!
You Might Be An Idiot!
If you think that Obama with no experience saving the environment is better than Hillary Clinton. Whose
husband (Bill Clinton) left office with the greatest amount of environmental cleanup, and protections in American history.
You Might Be An Idiot!
If you think that Obama with little or no education experience is better than Hillary Clinton. Whose
husband (Bill Clinton) made higher education affordable for every American. And created higher job demand and starting salary’s than they had ever been before or since.
You Might Be An Idiot!
If you think that Obama with no experience will be better than Hillary Clinton who spent 8 years at the right hand of President Bill Clinton. Who is already on record as one of the greatest Presidents in American history.
You Might Be An Idiot!
If you think that you can change the way Washington works with pretty speeches from Obama, rather than with the experience, and political expertise of two master politicians ON YOUR SIDE like Hillary and Bill Clinton..
You Might Be An Idiot!
If you think all those Republicans voting for Obama in the Democratic primaries, and caucuses are doing so because they think he is a stronger Democratic candidate than Hillary Clinton.
Best regards
jacksmith… Working Class
p.s. You Might Be An Idiot!
If you don’t know that the huge amounts of money funding the Obama campaign to try and defeat Hillary Clinton is coming in from the insurance, and medical industry, that has been ripping you off, and killing you and your children. And denying you, and your loved ones the life saving medical care you needed. All just so they can make more huge immoral profits for them-selves off of your suffering…
You see, back in 1993 Hillary Clinton had the audacity, and nerve to try and get quality, affordable universal health care for everyone to prevent the suffering and needless deaths of hundreds of thousands of you each year.
Approx. 100,000 of you die each year from medical accidents from a rush to profit by the insurance, and medical industry. Another 120,000 of you die each year from treatable illness that people in other developed countries don’t die from. And I could go on, and on…
OBAMA AIDE: “WORKING-CLASS VOTERS NOT KEY FOR DEMOCRATS”
p.s. I have been under heavy attacks for some time now. But it wont stop me.