Prediction 2008: Republicans Win for Old Familiar Reasons

Oil prices are high, neighbors are divided on the homefront about the war in Iraq and the US ecomony is on the verge of a recession. If ever there were a year for monumental change in America, this would be it.

The trouble for Democrats is they may be asking the country to make too radical of a change.

In the early part of our nation's history, change was quick, abrupt and, all too often, violent. These days, change in government comes much more slowly, in part because of the mistakes of the past. And so it goes with minority leaders and the Oval Office. As a former supporter of State Department Secretary Colin Powell, I believe the US will one day embrace a black president. I also believe a woman will one day hold the presidency.

But not this year.

If, as I'm predicting, the Democratic presidential ticket is some combination of Illinois Sen. Barack Obama and New York Senator and Former First Lady Hillary Clinton, I believe the Republicans will win. Not because Obama and Clinton don't make some valid and interesting points, but because America is still too conservative to accept a radical change all at once.

If, on the other hand, either of those candidates win the Democratic nomination and adds, say, former North Carolina Sen. John Edwards to the ticket, or if Edwards wins the nomination and invites Obama or Clinton to be his running mate, then I believe November will be anybody's ballgame, and the election will boil down -- as it should -- to the strengths of the candidates on the ballot.